Missouri’s historic moment in context

When Missouri launches sports betting in December 2025, almost 4 million adults will be able to place their first legal bets. For advertisers, this is a rare opportunity in the maturing US market: establishing an early foothold in an untapped market.

In just the first month of December, we estimate that Missouri may generate as much as $390 million in betting activity, and total wagers in the first year could be as high as $4.5bn.

In Missouri, a day one engaged audience of nearly a million

Missouri's December launch benefits from peak NFL season timing and features nine licensed operators, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars. The state's 10% tax rate (the lowest among major Midwest markets) is likely to drive intense competition.

The clearest indicator of Missouri's potential comes from consumer intent data. Nearly one in four Missouri adults indicate that they are likely to place sports bets once legal. Of this audience, over 280,000 expect to bet regularly (multiple times per year).

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This intent is backed by early behavioral signals: roughly 20% of Missourians report already placing bets through neighboring states or other channels, with GeoComply blocking 24 million betting attempts from Missouri in 2023 alone. This has only intensified in recent years with the success of the Chiefs. In 2024, GeoComply estimated that close to half a million Missourians were blocked from placing bets for Super Bowl 58.

The time is right for efficient user acquisition in Missouri

Capturing this demand will mean reaching the right users where they are, which makes mobile app marketing the critical channel for this moment. Moloco processes 2 billion advertising opportunities daily in Missouri, reaching over 4 million Missouri adults (21+) a month through the independent app ecosystem. 

Despite pent-up demand, the current market conditions are favoring efficient customer acquisition. Outside of Super Bowl weekend, pre-season is traditionally the most competitive period for user acquisition, which means mid-season can see lower than average acquisition costs. Moloco benchmarks show that cost per first-time deposit (cpFTD) on iOS has declined by as much as 48% from August highs. Historic trends suggest that these low acquisition costs will hold through December (aligning with 4 Chiefs games). All to say: the timing couldn’t be better for Missouri to come online.

Moloco benchmarks highlight that Missouri's neighboring states (Illinois, Kansas, and Iowa) consistently show below-average CPIs, suggesting similar efficiency for Missouri campaigns.

Implications for Real-Money Gaming Advertisers

In so many ways, Missouri punches above its weight. Although it’s only 1.9% of the U.S. population, we believe it’s positioned to capture 5%+ of national sports betting marketing spend in the first year:

• Documented demand: 1+ million likely bettors (24% of adults), with over 300,000 planning to bet regularly over the next 12 months
• Favorable economics: 10% tax rate (lowest among major Midwest markets) and low CPIs support aggressive acquisition. 2025 trends suggest that December will likely be the most efficient period for user acquisition to drive first-time deposits
• Regional advantages: Completion of the Midwest betting corridor allows operators to leverage and scale existing campaigns in Illinois, Kansas, and Iowa, states which are already some of the most cost-effective in the US to acquire new users

The launch in this ripe new market will mean big competition, but advertisers who prioritize mobile acquisition can make the most of low acquisition costs and early mover advantages.

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