The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be the most competitive yet. As advertisers move into Q4—the start of the global festive stretch—the opportunity to capture new audiences and drive performance is immense.

But the “holiday season” isn’t a single moment. It’s a rolling sequence of events that begins as early as mid-October with Diwali and runs through Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Hanukkah, Christmas, and New Year. Then comes Q5—the post-holiday stretch that brings Valentine’s Day, Lunar New Year, and Holi.

Each phase sparks a new wave of consumer energy: more shopping, more travel, more time spent on apps. For marketers, understanding those shifts is only half the story. The other half is knowing how ad performance and competition evolve as the season unfolds.

That’s exactly what Moloco’s Unwrapping Seasonal Strategies report reveals—turning user behavior data and ad-market dynamics into clear opportunities across the Independent App Ecosystem.

Plan Your Unique Seasonal Strategy

Winning the holidays means seeing where user behavior and marketing activity converge—and diverge.

By tracking metrics like time spent vs. CPM, revenue vs. ad opportunity, and downloads vs. ROAS, marketers can spot efficiency windows—moments when engagement is high but costs haven’t caught up.

Our analysis surfaces those windows across major verticals and key markets, showing where growth really lives from Q4 through Q5.

Vertical Insights

Gaming

In the United States, downloads surge in late November—the week of Thanksgiving and Black Friday—and rise again to its peak during Christmas and New Year (>40% increase from the beginning of Q4). However, as competition and costs peak before Black Friday, the Christmas-to-New Year period becomes the most efficient time to scale campaigns, when ROAS is strongest (+32% from the beginning of Q4 for iOS and +15% for Android).

In Korea, activity builds from late October and spikes again before Lunar New Year. Costs steadily decline through December, creating powerful efficiency windows around Christmas and pre–Lunar New Year (between +25% to +32% at its peak ROAS compared to the beginning of the season across iOS and Android).

In Japan, downloads spike during the Christmas-to-New Year window, where revenue and ROAS rise together while CPI dips—signaling a clear period to scale spend (+36% for iOS, +60% for Android versus beginning of Q4 ROAS). In addition, Japan has a unique season towards the end of March during the country's Spring holiday and before the start of its new fiscal year, April 1st. This is one of the highest spending seasons of Japanese consumers including gamers, resulting in exceptionally high downloads and ROAS, a great opportunity for marketers.

What it means for you: Use early Q4 for testing creatives and refining targeting, then increase UA investment during the Christmas-to-New Year window to capture users efficiently while engagement is high. Extend this momentum into Q5 with retention campaigns that sustain engagement beyond the holiday peak.

Social

In the U.S., engagement climbs right after Halloween and accelerates through Christmas and New Year. ARPPU peaks around every major holiday—Halloween, Thanksgiving/Black Friday, year-end holidays (Hanukkah, Christmas, New Year), and Lunar New Year—yielding bursts of strong ROAS from late October through Q5 (ranging between +100% to +217% in ROAS at various peaks across iOS and Adroid). The week before Lunar New Year also delivers exceptionally high ARPPU, offering a late-season monetization boost.

In Korea, increased time spent through December pushes monetization higher, with the weeks before Christmas and New Year generating the strongest ROAS (+26%).

In Japan, downloads spike ahead of Christmas while costs fall, making the holiday week a sweet spot for both efficiency and scale.

What it means for you: Maximize impact with holiday-timed creative refreshes and event-driven bursts—aligning ad messages with each festive moment to capture high user intent throughout Q4 and Q5.

Entertainment

In the United States, downloads and time spent rise before Thanksgiving and again during Christmas. Revenue, however, peaks only during Christmas week, when acquisition costs drop to seasonal lows. That alignment drives the highest ROAS of the year for entertainment apps (+88% compared to the beginning of the period).

What it means for you: Front-load testing in early Q4, then concentrate spend around Christmas week, when both engagement and cost efficiency align.

Holiday Strategy Playbook

The data tells a clear story: timing drives efficiency.
To win the holiday season—and extend that momentum through Q5—advertisers need a phased strategy that aligns spend, creative, and optimization with shifting user behavior.

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‍Key takeaways:

• Plan for two peaks, not one: Black Friday isn’t the end—Q5 is an opportunity-rich extension of the holiday cycle.
  
  
• Localize your approach: Western and East Asian markets follow different festive rhythms—adapt campaign pacing and creative to each.
  
  
• Stay agile: Monitor CPM, ROAS, and engagement trends weekly using Moloco’s live data updates to adjust strategies in real time.

From Insights to Impact

Every app and every market behaves differently. Success during this high-stakes stretch depends on the right mix of creative approach, bidding strategy, and budget allocation.

Moloco’s teams specialize in identifying these high-performance windows and turning them into measurable growth.

👉 Explore the full report: Moloco Seasonality Report 2025
👉 Talk with our experts for tailored recommendations that maximize your 2025 holiday results.

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